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, Sarlas, Georgios, Fuhrer, Raphael, Axhausen, Kay W., 2015 >>
Author(s): Sarlas, Georgios, Fuhrer, Raphael, Axhausen, Kay W.
Title: Quantifying the agglomeration effects of Swiss public transport between 2000 and 2010
Abstract: This conference contribution deals with the economic effects of public transport supply improvements on productivity, generally referred to as agglomeration effects. To the knowledge of the authors, there has not been a systematic study regarding these effects in Switzerland. To enable that, the development of productivity on a municipal level between 2000 and 2010 is regressed on variables, such as private and public transport accessibility, and variables describing the local economic structure. Productivity is operationalized by the average amount of salaries paid at the location of their generation. Different regression models are tested to account for the spatial and temporal character of the data. We conclude that agglomeration effects are present, quantifiable, and for the case of public transport supply they are found to take values between 1 and 3% for the nationwide spatial analysis level, while for the agglomeration areas the effects are significantly higher and take values between 2 and 4%. Moreover, elasticity values exhibit variation over the analysis period reflecting a differentiated dynamic of the externalities that can result due to the public transport improvements.2
Publication date / Date received: 2015-01-01
Publication status: Ascona
Publication status: Published
Subjects: Agglomeration effects, Public transport improvement, Externalities, Spatial econometrics, Geographically weighted regression
Event name: 15th Swiss Transport Research Conference (STRC 2015)
Event date: April 15-17, 2015
Place: Ascona, Switzerland
Language: English
Keyword: Agglomeration effects, Public transport improvement, Externalities, Spatial econometrics, Geographically weighted regression
DBID source: FORM-1432298052
, Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W., 2015 >>
Author(s): Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W.
Title: Prediction of AADT on a nationwide network based on an accessibility-weighted centrality measure
Abstract: In the present paper a direct demand modelling approach for AADT prediction on a nationwide network is presented. A particular focus if given on the construction of a variable that can capture the interregional demand patterns by taking into account the direction of potential interactions over space, called accessibility-weighted centrality, by applying different modifications on the stress centrality measure, tailored for the task of AADT prediction. It is exhibited that it can lead to a significant enhancement on the accuracy of the models. In addition to the already tested models in the literature, two SAR models are estimated and it is shown that GWR and kriging are more appropriate for interpolation purposes, while spatial error and OLS models might give slightly worse results but they have the potential to be applied both for interpolation and forecasting since their estimated parameters are unbiased and consistent. A comparison of models predictive accuracy to the output of a traditional four-step model is conducted to show that direct demand models on nationwide scale can constitute a trustworthy alternative to more advanced, but definitely more data demanding and computationally burdensome models.2
Published in: Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
Volume: 1094
Publication date / Date received: 2015-01-01
Publication status: Zürich
Publication status: Published
Language: English
DBID source: FORM-1438932435
, Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W., 2015 >>
Author(s): Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W.
Title: Localized speed prediction with the use of spatial simultaneous autoregressive models
Abstract: This paper examines how to employ spatial regression modelling as a direct demand modelling approach to provide localized speed estimates in a large scale network. In particular, four different spatial simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models are estimated and compared to an ordinary linear regression in order to highlight and evaluate their capability of explaining transport related phenomena and resolving issues that arise from the underlying spatial dependence. A particular focus is given on the identification, the construction, and the selection of the spatial weighting matrices. We conclude that the spatial autocorrelation (SAC) model outperforms the other SAR models, resolving spatial dependence issues, and thus is the proposed one for speed prediction purposes.2
Publication date / Date received: 2015-01-01
Publication status: Published
Event name: 94th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
Event date: January 11-15, 2015
Place: Washington, D.C., USA
Language: English
DBID source: FORM-1407397651
, Fuhrer, Raphael, Walker, Philipp, Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W., Neuenschwander, René, 2015 >>
Author(s): Fuhrer, Raphael, Walker, Philipp, Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W., Neuenschwander, René
Title: Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte des öffentlichen Verkehrs mit besonderer Berücksichtigung der Verdichtungs- und Agglomerationseffekte - Eine empirische Studie im Schweizer Kontext
Abstract: Diese Studie hat folgende Ziele: Die Agglomerationseffekte (wider economic benefits) erfassbar machen, sie für die Schweiz zu quantifizieren und ihre räumliche Dynamik zu analysieren. Dabei liegt der Fokus auf dem Öffentlichen Verkehr. Dazu werden mittels Strukturdaten, Erreichbarkeitsdaten und wirtschaftlichen Daten für den Zeitraum 2000, 2005 und 2010 auf Gemeindeebene verschiedene Regressionen geschätzt. Deren Resultate zeigen die folgenden Effekte für die Schweiz: Eine Verbesserung der ÖV-Erreichbarkeit um 100% führt zu einer Produktivitätssteigerung von durchschnittlich 1 bis 2%. In urban geprägten Gegenden ist dieser Effekt in etwa doppelt so hoch. Im Vergleich zu anderen Einflussvariablen auf die Produktivität liegt diese Elastizität im mittleren Einflussbereich und ist darum wichtig. Sie schwankt jedoch regional. Mit Hilfe eines Shift-Share-Ansatzes wird weiter ermittelt, welche Regionen in welcher Form von einer besseren ÖV-Erschliessung wirtschaftlich profitieren kÖnnen. Eine verbesserte ÖV-Erreichbarkeit führte zwischen 2000 und 2010 insbesondere in grossen und urbanen Gemeinden zu einer Zunahme der Arbeitsplätze. In kleineren und ländlicheren Gemeinden ist dagegen tendenziell ein negativer Zusammenhang festzustellen. Umgekehrt ist der Zusammenhang bei den Arbeitskräften, also der WohnbevÖlkerung: Eine Verbesserung der ÖV-Erreichbarkeit führt in kleineren Gemeinden tendenziell zu einer Zunahme der wohnhaften Arbeitskräfte.2
Book title: Jahrbuch 2015 Schweizerische Verkehrswirtschaft
Pages: 29 - 42
ISBN: 3-906532-27-5
ISSN: 1423-4459
Publication date / Date received: 2015-01-01
Publication status: St. Gallen
Publication status: Published
Language: German
DBID source: FORM-1442389893
Nebis system number: 000978592
, Axhausen, Kay W., Bischof, Tamara, Fuhrer, Raphael, Neuenschwander, René, Sarlas, Georgios, Walker, Philipp, 2015 >>
Author(s): Axhausen, Kay W., Bischof, Tamara, Fuhrer, Raphael, Neuenschwander, René, Sarlas, Georgios, Walker, Philipp
Title: Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte des öffentlichen Verkehrs mit besonderer Berücksichtigung der Verdichtungs- und Agglomerationseffekte
Abstract: Für die Schweiz gibt es noch keine empirischen Untersuchungen zu den agglomeration economies, ein Nutzenelement des Verkehrs, das in den letzten Jahren intensiv diskutiert wurde. Die Hypothese ist, dass durch eine verbesserte Erreichbarkeit von Agglomerationen oder anderen Gebieten ein grösserer Arbeits-, Zuliefer- und Absatzmarkt entsteht, der zu zusätzlichen Wachstumseffekten führt. Dieser Effekt ist teilweise als zusätzlicher Nutzen (wider economic benefit) zu verstehen, der über die üblicherweise in Kosten-Nutzen-Analysen festgestellten Zeitgewinne und anderen Nutzenelemente hinausgeht.2
Published in: Arbeitsbericht IVT
Volume: 1079
Publication date / Date received: 2015-01-01
Publication status: Zürich
Publication status: Accepted
Language: German
DBID source: FORM-1433780835
, Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W., 2014 >>
Author(s): Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W.
Title: Towards a direct demand modeling approach
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to employ spatial regression modelling as a form of direct demand modelling where the speed of each link is the dependent variable of interest. The variables that their inclusion in the regression model is investigated, correspond to only aggregated values where no personal data information can be traced back. More specifically, socio- demographic variables along with variables that represent the network characteristics are taken into account for that purpose. A particular focus is given on the identification and the construction of the spatial weighting matrices. Three different spatial autoregressive models are estimated and compared to the ordinary linear regression to highlight their capability of explaining transport related phenomena.2
Publication date / Date received: 2014-05-01
Publication status: Ascona
Publication status: Published
Subjects: Spatial regression, Demand modelling, Speed regression
Event name: 14th Swiss Transport Research Conference (STRC 2014)
Event date: May 14-16, 2014
Place: Ascona, Switzerland
Language: English
Keyword: Spatial regression, Demand modelling, Speed regression
DBID source: FORM-1400091571
, Zeiler, A., Sarlas, Georgios, Kuliowsky, M., 2014 >>
Author(s): Zeiler, A., Sarlas, Georgios, Kuliowsky, M.
Title: FaLC Transport Simulation Module
Subtitle: How accurate can simplified travel time calculations be?
Abstract: This paper presents, the assumptions, simplifications and accuracy of different approaches to estimate travel times in transport simulation. Additionally, the paper focuses on the assumptions in the simplified transport simulation module in FaLC as well as its methodology to achieve efficient results. To validate different approaches, the paper compares two different results for travel time estimations (calculation based on speed regression or maximum allowed speed) with the results of the Swiss National Passenger Transport Model (NPVM) calculated in VISEM.2
Publication date / Date received: 2014-04-01
Publication status: Ascona
Publication status: Published
Subjects: Travel time, Transport simulation, Land-use simulation, Speed regression, FaLC, IVT, regioConcept
Event name: 14th Swiss Transport Research Conference (STRC 2014)
Event date: May 14-16, 2014
Place: Ascona, Switzerland
Language: English
Keyword: Travel time, Transport simulation, Land-use simulation, Speed regression, FaLC, IVT, regioConcept
DBID source: FORM-1400091920
, Sarlas, Georgios, Fuhrer, Raphael, Axhausen, Kay W., 2014 >>
Author(s): Sarlas, Georgios, Fuhrer, Raphael, Axhausen, Kay W.
Title: Estimating the Agglomeration Effects of Public Transport Improvements: The Case of Switzerland
Abstract: 2
Publication date / Date received: 2014-01-01
Publication status: Leeds
Publication status: Unpublished
Event name: 3rd Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation (hEART 2014)
Event date: September 10-12, 2014
Place: Leeds, UK
Language: English
DBID source: FORM-1434979586
, Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W., Fuhrer, Raphael, 2014 >>
Author(s): Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W., Fuhrer, Raphael
Title: Estimating the agglomeration effects of public transport improvements
Subtitle: The case of Switzerland
Abstract: 2
Publication date / Date received: 2014-01-01
Publication status: Published
Event name: 3rd Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation (hEART 2014)
Event date: September 10-12, 2014
Place: Leeds, UK
Language: English
DBID source: FORM-1411042390
, Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W., 2014 >>
Author(s): Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W.
Title: Transport Simulation Module: Speed Regression
Abstract: The objective of the current module is to provide a direct and simplified way of estimating velocities for each link of the network of interest. In order to accomplish this, regression modeling is the chosen approach. The main advantage of that choice, in comparison to more advanced and complex demand models (eg four-step travel demand modelling approach, agent-based approaches), is that it can provide a structural equation of the speeds in association with the characteristics that affect the demand for travel but in a significantly less cumbersome way than the aforementioned approaches. The attributes that are used in the regression correspond to only aggregated values where no personal data information can be traced back. More specifically, socio-demographic attributes along with attributes that represent the characteristics of the network are taken into account for that purpose. The objective of the current work is to provide a coherent transport simulation module (regression model) that can be employed within an overall framework of a land-use and transport interaction tool in order to assist a facility location choice analysis.
Published in: Deliverables for the Project: Facility Location Choice Simulation Tool (FaLC)
Publication date / Date received: 2014-01-01
Publication status: Zürich
Publication status: Published
Language: English
DBID source: FORM-1407400312
, Bodenmann, Balz R., Sanchez, Breogan, Bode, Jeffrey W., Zeiler, Alexandra, Kuljovský, Milan, Furták, Peter, Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W., 2014 >>
Author(s): Bodenmann, Balz R., Sanchez, Breogan, Bode, Jeffrey W., Zeiler, Alexandra, Kuljovský, Milan, Furták, Peter, Sarlas, Georgios, Axhausen, Kay W.
Title: Planning for the Future: A Land-use and Transport Interaction Model for Switzerland
Abstract: Spatial and transport planners, authorities, real estate developers, investors, re-locating residents and businesses have different questions related to space and transport. These questions may concern specific land parcels, or cover a much larger area such as a city, a region, or even a whole nation. Amongst others, these questions include: - How will our society respond to influences of global economy and political decisions (e.g. regarding demographics and firmographics)? - Which strategies will help authorities and politicians to reach their goals? - What are the spatial effects (and side-effects) of these decisions and demographic changes (e.g. spatial/social segregation, use of resources and infrastructure, climate impact)? To answer these questions, different scenarios have been simulated including all 3000 municipalities in Switzerland using the integrated transport and land use simulation tool FaLC (Facility Location Choice Simulation Tool). FaLC incorporates interactions between land use, transportation, economy and public policy and has been developed in a joint project between the Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT) at ETH Zurich, regioConcept (Switzerland) and ESMO (Slovakia). The models in FaLC focus on the effects of changing infrastructure supply, political decisions, and economic conditions on the spatial behaviour (location and relocation choices, transport flows) of persons (places of residence, work, leisure and shopping), firms (domicile, branches) and goods (freights, wholesale, retail, cash flow). In FaLC, persons move (or stay) in a certain space divided into a number of subareas (locations), comparable to a chess board. The agents' movement includes the daily commuters between home, work and leisure, as well as long-term decisions such as; where they live, work and generally spend their spare time. The first prototype of FaLC is already in operation and ready to create future scenarios. The implemented case study for Switzerland focusses basically on three scenarios: - Effects of road network modification - Effects of company taxes reduction - Effects of land regulation modification This paper shows the effects and side-effects of these assumed spatial interventions. Additionally, it discusses some problems of the chosen micro-simulation approach (e.g. data availability, white noise, choice of subsets).2
Publication date / Date received: 2014-01-01
Publication status: Published
Event name: 54th ERSA Congress
Event date: 26-29 August 2014
Place: St. Petersburg, Russia
Language: English
DBID source: FORM-1417259811
, Sarlas, Georgios, 2013 >>
Author(s): Sarlas, Georgios
Title: Models (without) personal data
Abstract: 2
Publication date / Date received: 2013-01-01
Event name: Presentation at IVV
Event date: July 2013
DBID source: FORM-1414784881

 

 

 

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