Prof. Dr. Kay W. Axhausen
Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT)
HIL F 31.3
Tel: + 41 44 633 39 43
Fax: + 41 44 633 10 57
Prof. D.M. Scott, Dr. M. Bierlaire
Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung, Bern
Due to changes in policy, demography, economy, ecology, spatial and transport planning the Federal Office for Spatial Development decided to revise and renew the 1994 perspectives of Swiss passenger and goods traffic up to the year 2030.
In this context forecasts of the ownership of mobility tools, such as driving licence, car and tickets for public transport, are calculated in a first step. Based on these forecasts the corresponding intensity of usage of mobility tools is predicted. For the determination of the miles travelled per person the development of car occupancy until 2030 is estimated.
Starting from an analysis of the previous development in mobility tool ownership and usage models for the ownership of driving licences, cars and tickets for public transport as well as models for mileages and time spent in public and private transport are estimated based on data of the Swiss travel surveys. Important influencing variables are thereby age, birth cohort membership, gender, employment, income, household structure, size and location of the residential municipality, its type concerning a spatial and transport classification for Switzerland, travel times to the main and middle centre by public and private transport as well as in the context of usage the ownership of mobility tools. The estimated model parameters, forecasts for the development of population, employment and income as well as changes in supply of public and private transport are used to predict the development of mobility tool ownership and usage during the period from 2000 to 2030.
The results of the project are spatially on municipal level disaggregated forecasts for the ownership of mobility tools and for the average mileage per annum for public and private transport. Furthermore the development of car occupancy is estimated for different trip purposes.
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