ETH - IVT - VPL - Forschung

Überprüfung der schweizerischen Ganglinien: Erweiterung der methodischen Ansätze , Bernard, Michael, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Überprüfung der schweizerischen Ganglinien: Erweiterung der methodischen Ansätze
Record ID:	18666
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W., Bernard, Michael ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	Problematik: Im Rahmen der Erarbeitung der neuen Kosten-Nutzen-Norm wurde deutlich, dass die bestehenden Annahmen der SN 640 005a (VSS, 1999) zu den Schweizer Ganglinien nicht mehr ausreichen, um das Verkehrsverhalten realitätsnah abzubilden. Besonders für die Bestimmung der generalisierten Kosten in einer Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse (SN 671 800 und SN 671 802) sind genauere und differenziertere Abschätzungen nötig. Es zeigt sich, zum Beispiel, in den Auswertungen von Brilon und Zurlinden (2003), dass bei hohen Verkehrsstärken die Nutzerkosten nicht mehr linear steigen, so dass in diesen Bereichen verlässliche und möglichst genaue Abschätzungen des Verkehrsaufkommens gefordert werden müssen. In SN 671 016a bzw. in Bernard und Axhausen (2005) wird für die Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse vorgeschlagen, Verkehrsbelastungsfälle und deren Auftretenshäufigkeiten zu nutzen, die sich in der Regel auf Ganglinien stützen. Dieser Ansatz soll von einer Bemessung von Strassen nach einer Bemessungsverkehrsstunde (der 30. bis 100. höchstbelasteten Stunde) wegführen und mit den Verfahren zur Bemessung von Knotenpunkten (SN 640 022 und SN 640 023, VSS 1999) vereinheitlicht werden (Siehe auch die laufende Ausschreibung ABG 'Die Sicherheit des Verkehrssystems Strasse und dessen Kunstbauten', die auch stochastische Ansätze zur Bewertung vorsieht). Mit diesen Methoden können die gesamten generalisierten Kosten über ein Jahr abgeschätzt werden. Die elementare Grundlage hierfür ist eine realitätsnahe Beschreibung des Verteilung der Verkehrsstärken, die z.B. auch bei der Berechnung von Rückstauabflüssen benötigt wird. Ein Hauptproblem bei der Anwendung der Gangliniennorm SN 640 005a und ähnlicher ausländischer Ansätze ist die Annahme der Unabhängigkeit der Ganglinien für die Stunden der Tage (Tagesganglinie), der Tage in der Woche (Wochenganglinie) und Monate im Jahr (Jahresganglinie). Man nimmt also an, dass ein Sonntag im Dezember denselben Anteil an der Woche hat, wie ein Sonntag im Mai (Wochen * Monatsganglinie), oder dass die Stunde von 18:00-19:00 am Dienstag denselben Anteil am Tagesverkehr hat, wie diese Stunde am Freitag (Tages * Wochenganglinie). Während sich z. B. die Verkehrsstärken der Wochenganglinien für die Tage Montag bis Donnerstag nur gering voneinander unterscheiden, zeigen sich für die Tage Freitag, Samstag und Sonntag deutlich unterschiedliche mittlere Tagesverkehrsstärken. In der SN 640 005a wird aber für die Werktage Montag bis Freitag die gleiche Tagesganglinie angegeben, wobei die Übertragbarkeit auf alle Tage aber sehr fraglich ist. Vorgehen: Zur Identifizierung eventuell neuer Ganglinientypen sollen clusteranalytische Verfahren angewandt werden. Mit dieser Methodik lassen sich aus den gemessenen Ganglinien Klassen identifizieren, deren Mitglieder innerhalb einer Klasse eine grösstmögliche Ähnlichkeit haben, wobei die Klassen aber untereinander eine grösstmögliche Heterogenität kennzeichnet. Die Praktikabilität dieser Methodik wurde auf Tagesebene durch Heidemann und Wimber (1982) und Abay (1983) gezeigt. Die Untersuchungen sollen in mehreren Analyseschritten durchgeführt werden. Ausgangspunkt wird eine grundsätzliche Analyse aller verfügbaren Zähldaten sein. Hierbei werden nur auf Ebene der Verkehrsstärken Typisierungsmethoden getestet; d. h. es werden zunächst keine Verkehrszusammensetzungen oder Netzfunktionen in der Analyse berücksichtigt. Diese Erkenntnisse geben in zweifacher Hinsicht Aufschlüsse: Zum einen kann für viele Bemessungen von Infrastrukturelementen die genaue Verkehrszusammensetzung nach Vorgabe der Kategorien der bestehenden Norm nicht genügend genau abgeschätzt werden. Zusätzlich sei auf die Problematik verwiesen, dass auch bei der Erstellung der SN 640 005a die Zählstellen nicht in jedem Fall eindeutig einem bestimmten Typ zugeordnet werden konnten (Reduktion auf fünf Ganglinienarten, siehe Berg und Troxler, 2000). Literatur: Abay, G. (1983) Auswertungen von Strassenverkehrszählungen, Stab für Gesamtverkehrsfragen/EVED, 5-A 63, Zürich. Axhausen, K.W., Fröhlich, Ph., M. Tschopp and P. Keller (2005) Zeitkarten, Erreichbarkeiten und Verkehrspolitik, in K.W. Axhausen and L. Hurni (eds.) Zeitkarten Schweiz 1950 - 2000, Kapitel 1, IVT and IKA, ETH Zürich, Zürich. Bernard und Axhausen (2005) A proposal for a new design load concept for highway infrastructures, Conference Paper 86th Annual TRB Meeting, Washington D. C., January 2006. Brilon, W. und H. Zurlinden (2003) Überlastungswahrscheinlichkeiten und Verkehrsleistung als Bemessungskriterium für Straßenverkerhsanlagen, Forschung Straßenbau und Straßenverkehrstechnik, 870, Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bonn. Bundesamt für Strassen (ASTRA) (2003) Automatische Strassenverkehrszählung 1997-2003, AVZ-CD, Sigmaplan, Bern. Pinkofsky, L. (2002) Ganglinientypen; In: S. L. Laffont, G. Nierhoff und G. Schmidt. Verkehrsentwicklung auf Bundesstraßen 2000. Berichte der Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, V99, S. 15-20, Bergisch Glattbach. Heidemann, D. und P. Wimber (1982) Typisierung von Verkehrsstärkeganglinien durch clusteranalytische Verfahren, Straßenverkehrszählungen der Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, 26, Bergisch Glattbach.
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Andere, Others

VSS 2005/203 - Datenbank für Verkehrsaufkommensraten , Weis, Claude, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	VSS 2005/203 - Datenbank für Verkehrsaufkommensraten
Record ID:	19230
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

Urban Transformation - Agent-based Simulation of Real Estate Development , Zöllig, Christof, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Urban Transformation - Agent-based Simulation of Real Estate Development
Record ID:	22495
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Zöllig, Christof ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	The majority of people in Switzerland live in cities. This makes the urban environment one of the most important influences for future living conditions  and arguably society itself. The built environment consists mainly of infrastructures providing specialised spaces for economic, social and cultural activities. The development of these infrastructures determines living conditions to a substantial extant. The requirements that ongoing land consumption should be reduced and that a large share of infrastructure stock needs redevelopment promises a huge potential for a more sustainable society within the adaptation and redevelopment processes of urban built environments. One potential is the renewal of energy inefficient buildings. A second may be a better allocation of land uses in order to reduce traffic. Society could also benefit from more social equity through minimising segregation and polarisation. Approximately half of the national wealth is held in the national building stock, which makes it very relevant for the national economy. To be clear about the chances and risks inherent in developing these assets is therefore of major interest. We see this process as a sequence of activities undertaken by autonomous actors. They act and react according to their strategies and respond to the opportunities offered by their surroundings. How the building stock will be transformed depends, therefore, not only on demand but on the actors providing the building supply as well. To research the interplay between different actors is the overall goal of this project. As a method of investigation, we want to make use of an agent-based micro-simulation land use model. In recent years land use modelling has given the supply side surprisingly little attention, even though the method is being applied to similar problems. Our intention is to introduce actors of the supply side explicitly into an advanced micro-simulation model of land use that promises important new results. It is assumed that the development path of the building stock and corresponding land use patterns will be substantially different depending on the strategies of real estate developers and the number of developers who apply a certain strategy. We then want to address the question of whether public authorities can make use of certain developer type compositions to counter negative development tendencies in some parts of the city. It is hypothesised that neighbourhood effects may allow for active development policy through spatially targeted investments.
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences, Civil Engineering
Funding sources:	SNF

Travel behaviour in a dynamic spatial and social context: Modelling the interdependence of social network interactions and spatial choices , Hackney, Jeremy Keith, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Travel behaviour in a dynamic spatial and social context: Modelling the interdependence of social network interactions and spatial choices
Record ID:	18546
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Hackney, Jeremy Keith ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Economics, Geography, Sociology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	SNF

Travel Impacts of Social Networks and Networking Tools , Kowald, Matthias, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Travel Impacts of Social Networks and Networking Tools
Record ID:	19339
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	Description: To be able to survey connected egocentric networks a so called snowball technique is used. This means not to ask only one person, Ego, to mention his contacts, Alter, but to also ask these contacts to give information about their contacts and so on. Materials and Methods: By using an ascending sampling strategy like this the respondents from a small initial random sample are used as a starting point to be able to sample more and more persons that are connected to the starting point in a direct or indirect way. The project aims to focus on leisure contacts and activities. To collect information on a person's social network and daily activities, the survey instrument is split into a questionnaire and an activity diary. As the project aims to get information about the spatial spread of social networks and the social context of a relationship, several different aspects have been implemented in the questionnaire. Continuing the snowball means to loose the characteristics of a random sample as a chain method implies sources of bias. Not all persons have an equal chance to become part of the sample as they are selected and named by Ego. Bias coming from an oversampling of persons with many social contacts is expected as these persons have a greater chance to get part of the sample as isolated individuals. Equipment used: To reach as many potential respondents as possible both, questionnaire and diary, are provided in a paper and an electronic version in English and German. Preliminary results: The survey is still in the field. The response rate is very good given the nature of the sampling methodology. Discussion: A new version of the electronic questionnaire is tested at the moment. The old instruments implied several bugs due to different browsers used by the respondents. Relevant literature: Illenberger, J., G. Flötteröd, M. Kowald and K. Nagel (2009) A model for spatially embedded social networks, paper presented at the 12th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research, Jaipur, December 2009. Kowald, M., A. Frei, J.K. Hackney, J. Illenberger and K.W. Axhausen (2009) The influence of social contacts on leisure travel: A snowball sample of personal networks, paper presented at the 12th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research, Jaipur, December 2009. Kowald, M., A. Frei, J.K. Hackney, J. Illenberger and K.W. Axhausen (2009) Using an ascending sampling strategy to survey connected egocentric networks: A field work report on phase one of the survey, Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung, 582, IVT, ETH Zurich, Zurich. Kowald, M., A. Frei, J.K. Hackney, J. Illenberger and K.W. Axhausen (2009) Collecting data on Leisure Travel: The Link between Leisure Acquaintances and Social Interactions, Conference Paper for 'Applications of Social Network Analysis' (ASNA), Zurich, 2009. Kowald, M. (2008) Spatial relationships and social networks: An iterative approach, paper presented at the ASNA Conference Zurich 2008, Zurich, September 2008 and the 8th Swiss Transport Research Conference, Ascona, October 2008. Kowald, M., J.K. Hackney and A. Frei (2008) Mögliche Vorgehensweisen zur Erhebung sozialer Netzwerkdaten durch die iterative Kombination ego-zentrierter Netzwerke, Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung, 506, IVT, ETH Zürich, Zürich.
Research fields (keywords):	Social Geography, Social Research Methods, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Stiftungen, Stiftungen

Transferable development rights for reducing land consumption and sprawl in Switzerland , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Transferable development rights for reducing land consumption and sprawl in Switzerland
Record ID:	29556
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	SNF

The potential of carpooling , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	The potential of carpooling
Record ID:	29554
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

The influence of parking on travel behaviour and energy consumption , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	The influence of parking on travel behaviour and energy consumption
Record ID:	29553
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

SustainCity - Micro-simulation for the prospective of sustainable cities in Europe , Zöllig, Christof, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	SustainCity - Micro-simulation for the prospective of sustainable cities in Europe
Record ID:	22494
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	Description: Increasing concerns about sustainable development and the growth of urban areas have brought forth in recent years a renewed enthusiasm and need for the use of quantitative models in the field of transportation and spatial planning. This project will improve urban simulation models and their interaction with transport models. Unified operational models that favour a microscopic approach, such as UrbanSim and ILUTE (Integrated Land Use, Transportation, and Environment Modelling System) have recently gained a lot of interest both in the land use and transport communities. Nevertheless, in their current forms these models still require further development to support a comprehensive analysis of the main environmental and socio-economic questions of the sustainability of urban growth and the relevant public policies. The goal of this project is to address the modelling and computational issues of integrating modern mobility simulations with the latest micro-simulation land use models. The project will advance the state-of-the-art in the field of the micro-simulation of prospective integrated models of Land-Use and Transport (LUTI). On the modelling side, the main challenges are to integrate a demographic evolution module, to add an environmental module, to improve the overall consistency and, last but not least, to deal with the multi-scale aspects of the problem: several time horizons and spatial resolutions are involved. Theoretical models (such as the monocentric textbook model) have proven useful in stating normative results, but remain of limited usefulness, when it comes to empirical applications that include any degree of disaggregation. However, they are useful benchmarks. Simulation tools are more suitable for dealing with realistic policy analysis. Integrated urban modelling is still a complex task and developing a complete and reliable tool remains out of reach of many professional organizations. The Open Platform for Urban Simulation (OPUS), is an Open Source modelling platform for a suite of behavioural-based models addressing (housing location decisions, employment decisions, and urban form). UrbanSim is an integrated model system implemented within the OPUS Platform. UrbanSim has proved to be a very powerful and efficient tool in the context of American cities (Waddell et al, 2007, Waddell and Borning, 2004). However, various recent projects conducted in Europe point to the need to adapt the available modelling platform, to develop new tools consistent with the historical, political and social characteristics of European cities and with specific lifestyles and preferences. High-level academic research in transportation, planning, economics and in econometric modelling and in other fields such as geography, new economic geography, computer science and operations research happen to be particularly relevant for analysing urban development and building integrated land use and transportation models. These developments will aim at: Improving the integrated urban model specification, estimation and validation (and therefore the accuracy of predictions), Adapting UrbanSim to European contexts, Adding to UrbanSim the simulation of travel and daily behaviour, Adding to UrbanSim a sustainability and environmental module, Adding a demographic micro-simulation module to the integrated platform, Introducing some elements of collective decision process within households (taking into account potential conflicts of interests among different members of a household). These developments will be analysed, tested and validated for three case studies in Brussels, Paris and Zurich. We promote this new prototype modelling platform UrbanSimE for Europe among the professional and academic communities in order to ease its application by European local and regional communities. Relevant literature: M. Almus, and E.A. Nerlinger, 1999, Growth of new technology-based firms: Which factors matter? Journal Small Business Economics 13 141-154. A. Anas, METROSIM: A Unified Economic Model of Transportation and Land-Use, Alex Anas & Associates, Williamsville, NY, USA, 1994. A. Anas, R.J. Arnott, and K.A. Small, 2000, The Panexponential Monocentric Model. Journal of Urban Economics 47 165-179. T. Arentze, and H. Timmermans, 2008, Social networks, social interactions, and activity-travel behaviour: a framework for microsimulation. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 35 1012-1027. K.W. Axhausen, J.L. Madre, J.W. Polak, and P.L. Toint, (Eds.), Capturing Long Distance Travel, Research Science Press, Baldock, UK, 2003. M. Balmer, K. Axhausen, and K. Nagel, 2007, Agent-Based Demand-Modelling Framework for Large-Scale Microsimulations. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1985 125-134. F.C. Billari, T. Fent, A. Prskawetz, and J. Scheffran, (Eds.), Agent-Based Computational Modelling. Applications in Demography, Social, Economic and Environmental Sciences, Physica-Verlag Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, 2006. F.C. Billari, and A. Prskawetz, (Eds.), Agent-Based Computational Demography: Using Simulation to Improve Our Understanding of Demographic Behaviour, Physica-Verlag Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, 2003. B.R. Bodenmann, and K.W. Axhausen, 2008, Schweizer Unternehmen - quo vaditis? Firmendemographische Trends am Beispiel des Wirtschaftsraums St. Gallen. Raumforschung und Raumordnung 66 318-332. A.E. Brouwer, The inert firm: why old firms show a stickiness to their location, The 44th ERSA congress, Porto, 2004. J. Brüderl, P. Preisendörfer, and Z. Rolf, 1996, Der Erfolg neugegründeter Betriebe, Betriebswirtschaftliche Schriften, Duncker und Humblot, Berlin, Germany. R.M. Buckley, and A.S. Mathema, 2008, Real Estate Regulations in Accra: Some Macroeconomic Consequences? Urban Stud 45 2249-2271. G. Buenstorf, and C. Guenther, No place like home? Location choice and firm survival after forced relocation in the German machine tool industry, Jena Economic Research Paper, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena, Germany, 2007. M. Campi, F. Bucher, and M. Zardini, 2001, Annähernd perfekte Peripherie Glattalstadt/Greater Zurich Area, Birkhäuser Verlag. B. Checkoway, 2002, Large builders, federal housing programmes, and postwar suburbanization. in: M. Pacione, (Ed.), The City: Critical Concepts in the Social Sciences, Taylor & Francis, 2002, pp. 599. P.A. Chiappori, 1992, Collective Labor Supply and Welfare. The Journal of Political Economy 100 437-467. P.A. Chiappori, and I. Ekeland, 2006, The micro economics of group behavior: General characterization. Journal of Economic Theory 130 1-26. A. de Palma, and F. Marchal, 2002, Real cases applications of the fully Dynamic METROPOLIS Tool-box: an Advocacy for Global Large-scale Mesoscopic Transportation Systems. Networks and Spatial Economics 2 Kluwer Academic Publishers. A. de Palma, F. Marchal, and Y. Nesterov, 1997, METROPOLIS : A Modular System for Dynamic Traffic Simulation. Transportation Research Record 1607. A. de Palma, K. Motamedi, D. Nguyen-Luong, H. Ouaras, and N. Picard, SIMAURIF (SIMulation of the interAction between land Use and transport in the Region Paris Ile-de-France) : the whole calibration and the application to the 'North Tangential' railway project, European Regional Science Association (ERSA) Congress, Liverpool, UK, 2008. A. de Palma, K. Motamedi, N. Picard, and P. Waddell, 2005a, A model of residential location choice with endogenous housing prices and traffic for the Paris region. European Transport 31 67-82. A. de Palma, K. Motamedi, N. Picard, and P. Waddell, 2007a, Accessibility and environmental quality: inequality in the Paris housing market. European Transport 36 47-74. A. de Palma, D. Nguyen-Luong, K. Motamedi, N. Picard, H. Ouaras, and M. Fernandes, SIMAURIF, Modèle dynamique de simulation de l'interaction Urbanisation-transports de Région Ile-de-France, Application à la Tangentielle nord; Rapport intermédiaire de la 2ème phase, Institut d'aménagement et d'urbanisme de la région d'Ile-de-France (IAU-IdF), Paris, 2007b. A. de Palma, and J.-L. Prigent, 2008, Utilitarianism and fairness in portfolio positioning. Journal of Banking and Finance 32 1648-1660. C. Dujardin, H. Selod, and I. Thomas, 2004, Le chômage dans l'agglomération bruxelloise: Une explication par la structure urbaine. Reveue d'economie regionale et urbaine 25. N. Eluru, A.R. Pinjari, J.Y. Guo, I.N. Sener, S. Srinivasan, R.B. Copperman, and C.R. Bhat, 2008, Population Updating System Structures and Models Embedded Within the Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Urban Systems (CEMUS). Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board 27. M. Fritsch, U. Brixy, and O. Falck, 2006, The Effect of Industry, Region, and Time on New Business Survival - A Multi-Dimensional Analysis. Review of Industrial Organization 28 285-306. M. Fujita, 1989, Urban economic theory : Land use and city size, Cambrige University Press, Cambridge (MA), USA. M. Fujita, and J.-F. Thisse, 1996, Economics of agglomeration. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 10 339-378. C. Gaigné, and F. Goffette-Nagot, 2003, Localisation rurale des activités industrielles. Que nous enseigne l'économie géographique. Document de travail 2003/3 (CESAER). C. Gaigné, J.-P. Huiban, and B. Schmitt, 2002, Activité économique et espace : les déterminants de la spécialisation. Document de travail 2002/1 (CESAER). J.K. Hackney, and F. Marchal, Model for coupling multiagent social interactions and traffic simulation, the 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2009. E. Hauri, 2006, L'habitat en Suisse : développement territorial et logement. in: E. Hauri, V. Steiner, and M. Vinzens, (Eds.), Bulletin du logement, Office fédéral du logement, Granges, 2006, pp. 79. H. Jennequin, 2001, Le rôle de la mobilité du travail dans la localisation des activités : une revue critique de la littérature d'économie géographique. Document de travail 01-2001 (Université Paris XIII, équipe du CEPN). R. Kitamura, and S. Fujii, Two Computational Process Models of Activity-travel Behavior. in: T. Gärling, T. Laitila, and K. Westin, (Eds.), Theoretical Foundations of Travel Choice Modelling, Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1998, pp. 251-279. D. Lee, 1973, Requiem for Large Scale Urban Models. Journal of the American Institute of Planners 39 163-178. D. Lee, 1994, Retrospective on Large-scale Urban Models. Journal of the American Planning Association 60 35-40. G.K.L. LEE, and E.H.W. CHAN, 2008, A Sustainability Evaluation of Government-led Urban Renewal Projects. Facilities 26 526-541. M. Löchl, Real estate and land price models for UrbanSim's Greater Zurich application, Arbeitsberichte Polyprojekt "Zukunft urbane Kulturlandschaften", ETHZ, Zurich, CH, 2006, pp. 26. M. Löchl, M. Bürgle, and K.W. Axhausen, 2007, Implementierung des integrierten Flächennutzungsmodells UrbanSim für den Grossraum Zürich - ein Erfahrungsbericht. DISP 13-25. H. Maoh, and P. Kanaroglou, 2007, Geographic clustering of firms and urban form: a multivariate analysis. Journal of Geographical Systems 9 29-52. H.F. Maoh, and P.S. Kanaroglou, Agent-Based Firmographic Models: A Simulation Framework for the City of Hamilton, PROCESSUS, Toronto, 2005. H.F. Maoh, P.S. Kanaroglou, and R.N. Buliung, Modelling the location of firms within an integrated transport and land-use model for Hamilton, Ontario, CSpA WP, McMaster University, Hamilton, 2005. D. Metz, 2008, The Limits to Travel: How Far Will You Go?, earthscan, London, UK. E.J. Miller, Propositions for Modelling Household Decision-Making, the International Colloquium on the Behavioral Foundations of Integrated Land Use and transportation Models, 2002. JR. Moeckel, Business location decisions and urban sprawl : a microsimulation of business relocation and firmography, IRPUD, Universität Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany, 2006, pp. 271. R. Moeckel, C. Schürmann, and M. Wegener, Microsimulation of urban land use, 42th ERSA Congress, ERSA, Dortmund, 2002. OPUS, The Open Platform for Urban Simulation and UrbanSim Version 4.2: Users Guide and Reference Manual, CUSP, Seattle, WA, USA, 2008. P.H. Pellenbarg, Firm migration in the Netherlands, the 45th ERSA congress, Amsterdam, Netherlans, 2005. A.-L. Ricci, 1999, Economic geography and comparative advantage: agglomeration versus specialization. European Economic Review 43 357-377. M. Rieser, U. Beuck, D. Grether, K. Nagel, and K.W. Axhausen, forthcoming, Multi-agent transport simulations and economic evaluation. Jahrbuch für Nationalökonomie und Statistik. P. Salvini, and E.J. Miller, 2005, ILUTE: An Operational Prototype of a Comprehensive Microsimulation Model of Urban Systems. Networks and Spatial Economics 5 217-234. B. Schwaiger, 2003, Strukturelle und dynamische Modellierung von Gebaeudebestaenden, dissertation.de, Berlin. A. Sundararajan, and G.G. Konstadinos, 2003, Demographic microsimulation with DEMOS 2000: Design, validation, and forecasting. in: G.G. Konstadinos, (Ed.), Transportation Systems Planning: Methods and Applications, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 2003, pp. 14-1 to 23. K. Train, 2003, Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. J. Van Dijk, and P.H. Pellenbarg, 2000, Firm relocation decisions in the Netherlands: an ordered logit approach. Papers in Regional Science 79 191-219. J.E. Van Wezemael, 2005, Investieren im Bestand. Eine handlungstheoretische Analyse der Erhalts- und Entwicklungsstrategien von Wohnbau-Investoren in der Schweiz, Ostschweizerische Geographische Gesellschaft, St. Gallen. L.J.G. Van Wissen, and V. Schutjens, Geographical scale and the role of firm migration in spatial economic dynamics, European Regional Science Association, 2005. P. Waddell, 2000, A behavioral simulation model for metropolitan policy analysis and planning: residential location and housing market components of UrbanSim. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 27 247-263. P. Waddell, 2002, Modeling Urban Development for Land Use, Transportation, and Environmental Planning. Journal of the American Planning Association 68 297 - 314. P. Waddell, C. Bhat, N. Eluru, L. Wang, and R. Pendyala, 2007a, Modeling Interdependence in Household Residence and Workplace Choices. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2003 84-92. P. Waddell, and A. Borning, 2004, A Case Study in Digital Government: Developing and Applying UrbanSim, a System for Simulating Urban Land Use, Transportation, and Environmental Impacts. Social Science Computer Review 22 37-51. P. Waddell, A. Borning, M. Noth, N. Freier, M. Becke, and G.F. Ulfarsson, 2003a, Microsimulation of Urban Development and Location Choices: Design and Implementation of UrbanSim. Networks and Spatial Economics 3 43-67. P. Waddell, A. Borning, M. Noth, N. Freier, M. Becke, and G.F. Ulfarsson, 2003b, UrbanSim: A Simulation System for Land Use and Transportation. Network and Spatial Economics 43-67. P. Waddell, H. evčíková, D. Socha, E. Miller, and K. Nagel, Opus: An Open Platform for Urban Simulation, Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management Conference, London, UK. 2005. P. Waddell, G.F. Ulfarsson, J. Franklin, and J. Lobb, 2007b, Incorporating Land Use in Metropolitan Transportation Planning. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 382-410. J. Wagner, 1994, The post-entry performance of new small firms in german manufactoring industries. Journal of Industrial Economics 24 141-154. M. Wegener, 1994, Operational Urban Models State of the Art. Journal of the American Planning Association 60 17 - 29. M. Wegener, SASI Model Description, Working Paper, Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and Regional Research, Dortmund, Germany, 2008. R. Zeitner, Bewertung von Handlungsalternativen bei Investitionen in den Gebäudebestand Eine Aufgabe für Architekten, Technischen Universität Berlin, Berlin, 2006, pp. 316. Y. Zenou, 2000, Externalités spatiales, économies d'agglomération et formation endogène d'une ville monocentrique. Annales d'économie et de statistique.
Research fields (keywords):	Urban Economics, Environmental Policy and Decision Making, Transport Technology
Funding sources:	EU

Standortwahlverhalten von Unternehmen , Bodenmann, Balz Reto, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Standortwahlverhalten von Unternehmen
Record ID:	19041
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Ciari, Francesco, Bodenmann, Balz Reto ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Urban Economics, Urban Design, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Own resources of the professorship, Grunddotation

Spatial accessibility and the dynamics of commuting in Germany and Switzerland 1970 to 2005 , Killer, Veronika, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Spatial accessibility and the dynamics of commuting in Germany and Switzerland 1970 to 2005
Record ID:	20680
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W., Holz-Rau, Christian ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	The focus of this research is the identification of the structural changes in commuting behaviour since 1970 as a function of the dynamics of spatial accessibility and population redistribution. The project aims to test three hypotheses derived from the literature: a) that the suburban fringes have decoupled from their respective core cities and that this 'maturation' of suburbia leads to a reduction in commuting distances; b) that high-density settlements are associated with low commuting volumes (i.e. shorter home to work distances) even when incoming and outgoing trips are considered jointly; c) that the effect of further improvements in accessibility on commuter behaviour has declined markedly over time. The comparison between Germany and Switzerland allows for an identification of the effects of different spatial planning and transport planning strategies. In terms of methodology, for hypothesis a) new procedures have to be developed that can automatically identify overlapping catchment areas and possible clusterings of origins / destinations in the catchment area. For b) new procedures for allocating transport volume to origin and destination have to be developed so that transport volume can then be explained with methodologies of spatial statistics. The usual discrete models of mode choice and destination choice that can be used for c) have to be expanded in order to catch possible effects of spatial correlation
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	SNF

SVI 2004/012 - Aktivitätenorientierte Analyse des Neuverkehrs , Weis, Claude, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	SVI 2004/012 - Aktivitätenorientierte Analyse des Neuverkehrs
Record ID:	19229
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

Route choice in urban public transport systems , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Route choice in urban public transport systems
Record ID:	29549
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Rieser, Nadine ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

Peacox - Persuasive Advisor for CO2-reducing cross-model trip planning , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Peacox - Persuasive Advisor for CO2-reducing cross-model trip planning
Record ID:	29545
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Rieser, Nadine ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	EU

Palü , Löchl, Michael, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Palü
Record ID:	19300
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Economics, Geography
Funding sources:	Industry, Industrie

National Stated Preference survey on travel behaviour , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	National Stated Preference survey on travel behaviour
Record ID:	29532
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

Mobilitätsplan Hochschulgebiet Zürich - Nachfrage- und Nutzungsanalyse , Weis, Claude, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Mobilitätsplan Hochschulgebiet Zürich - Nachfrage- und Nutzungsanalyse
Record ID:	19227
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Andere, Others

Large-scale stochastic optimization for agent-based traffic simulations , oblozinska, zlata, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Large-scale stochastic optimization for agent-based traffic simulations
Record ID:	15678
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Meister, Konrad ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	TH-Gesuch, ETH internal grant

Konzeptsstudie Flächennutzungsmodellierung , Zöllig, Christof, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Konzeptsstudie Flächennutzungsmodellierung
Record ID:	22497
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

KITE - A Knowledge Base for Intermodal Passenger Travel in Europe , Frei, Andreas, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	KITE - A Knowledge Base for Intermodal Passenger Travel in Europe
Record ID:	19231
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	EU

Integrated modelling and the analysis of energy and transport systems , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Integrated modelling and the analysis of energy and transport systems
Record ID:	29530
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	TH-Gesuch, Andere, ETH internal grant, Others

Infrastruktur, Erreichbarkeit und Raumplanung im Rahmen des Polyprojektes 'Zukunft urbane Kulturlandschaften' , oblozinska, zlata, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Infrastruktur, Erreichbarkeit und Raumplanung im Rahmen des Polyprojektes 'Zukunft urbane Kulturlandschaften'
Record ID:	13336
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Urban Economics, Simulation and modelling
Funding sources:	TH-Gesuch, ETH internal grant

Evacuating Swiss cities: An agent-based analysis , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Evacuating Swiss cities: An agent-based analysis
Record ID:	29546
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

Entwicklung eines Entscheidungsverfahrens zur Bemessung von Verkehrsanlagen (Grundlagen für eine grundlegende Neukonzeption der SN 640 016a 'Massgebender Verkehr' ) , Axhausen, Kay W., Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Entwicklung eines Entscheidungsverfahrens zur Bemessung von Verkehrsanlagen (Grundlagen für eine grundlegende Neukonzeption der SN 640 016a 'Massgebender Verkehr' )
Record ID:	10530
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

Entwicklung eines Entscheidungsverfahrens zur Bemessung von Verkehrsanlagen , oblozinska, zlata, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Entwicklung eines Entscheidungsverfahrens zur Bemessung von Verkehrsanlagen
Record ID:	13329
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

ETH Travel Data Archive (ETHTDA) , Lefebvre, Nicolas Laurent, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	ETH Travel Data Archive (ETHTDA)
Record ID:	13333
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Chalasani, V Saikumar, Lefebvre, Nicolas Laurent ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	TH-Gesuch, ETH internal grant

Destination choice modelling for discretionary activities: Fundamentals of choice set formation and impacts of spatial competition , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Destination choice modelling for discretionary activities: Fundamentals of choice set formation and impacts of spatial competition
Record ID:	29544
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Horni, Andreas ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	SNF

Continuous need-based planning for efficient agent-behaviour modelling , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Continuous need-based planning for efficient agent-behaviour modelling
Record ID:	29543
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Charypar, David ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	SNF

Benzinpreis und Bahnnutzung , Weis, Claude, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Benzinpreis und Bahnnutzung
Record ID:	22472
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Industry, Industrie

Assessing possibilities of travel behaviour change during life course transitions: a methodological and empirical study , Frei, Andreas, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Assessing possibilities of travel behaviour change during life course transitions: a methodological and empirical study
Record ID:	19228
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	Objectives In a context where mobility plays an ever more central role in the inner functioning of society but at the same time generates important negative externalities, redirecting individual travel behaviour towards more sustainable means of transport is a priority for transport policies throughout Europe. Unfortunately, past policy implementation efforts have shown that it is rather difficult to influence individual travel practices, especially those of car drivers. Additional research is thus needed to investigate how voluntary travel behaviour change could be more successfully promoted. It is generally admitted that travel behaviour change often occurs during life course transitions like a residential relocation, a change of workplace, starting a family, retirement, etc. However, numerous open questions remain about how individuals and households adapt their travel habits after important life cycle events, in particular regarding the underlying decision processes of travel habit rearrangement, the importance of past mobility biography and the role of social networks. Our research project aims at getting a better understanding of the interactions between life course transitions, mobility biographies, social networks and travel behaviour. For this purpose, we have developed and tested innovative survey concepts combining qualitative and quantitative methods as well as person-based GPS tracking. Methods Two complementary surveys have been realized: 1) LaSUR-EPFL has developed and successfully tested a survey concept combining person-based GPS tracking units allowing the precise and complete reconstruction of individuals' travel behaviour and qualitative prompted recall interviews to get comments about travel choices. With this approach, it is possible to investigate the interdependencies between actual spatial practices and travel mode use on one hand, and subjective attitudes, reasoning and competences on the other hand. A pilot survey has been conducted with 21 participants who just had experienced a significant life cycle event and, during six weeks following that event, it as allowed to observe behavioural innovation and to comprehensively understand the associated learning processes. 2) IVT-ETHZ conducted a quantitative survey based on retrospective data collection, by way of 294 face-to-face interviews supplemented by a written questionnaire. Data has been collected about the mobility biography of the respondents (home and work locations, mobility tool ownership: car, cycles, season tickets, licences) as well as about the geography of their social networks. The analysis allowed to develop models to characterise the driving forces behind the changes that occur throughout an individual's life course, with specific attention on the evolution of the geographies of individuals' social networks. Results Our surveys corroborate the generally admitted idea that the evolution of travel behaviour and mobility tool ownership is rather closely linked to life cycle events, especially with those involving a major change in the spatial settings of the individual activity space. It moreover appears that travel behaviour changes are more likely to occur in younger ages, when people are still involved in studies and when they have not yet settled in a more stable family life. The first car acquisition plays a significant role in individuals' lifetime motorization, because car availability through ownership is a status that is seldom abandoned. Generally speaking, the survey conducted by EPFL-LaSUR shows that spatial habits rearrangement processes following a life course transition are either informed by personal social networks or by referring to the personal mental map that results from observations gleaned while practicing an area or specific routes. Information tools and services (maps, internet, medias, etc.) seem to play a rather secondary role when it comes to building up new spatial habits. After life cycle events, travel mode use habits are mainly redefined as a consequence of changes in spatial settings and of associated variations in available transport infrastructure. When travel mode habits are adapted, former travel mode use experience plays an important role and experiment-based comparisons of available travel mode options are rather rare. The IVT-ETHZ survey has on its side shown that persons mix local, regional and international contacts for their social capital and their social life. They maintain contact with all the modes at their disposal: face-to-face contacts play an important role regardless of distance, although phone and email obviously get a major share of contacts when distance increases. Young, well educated people with a low and middle income and an eventful work- and education-biography tend to maintain bigger social network geographies. Generally speaking, the analyses suggest that mobility biography significantly impacts on the size of an individual's social network, both in terms of number of contacts and geographical size of the social network (i.e. when people have experienced a larger number of life cycle events involving regional or international changes in residence and/or workplace, the size of the social network is larger, whereas that size is rather small when people have stayed in a place with continuity). Recommendations With regard to possible modes of policy intervention, our results confirm that life course transitions can be regarded as 'windows of opportunity' for trying to influence individual behaviour, as travel habits are often reshaped in those life phases. However, our interviews also suggest that individuals are not very receptive for institutional guidance when they face a major life cycle event. Indeed, people very often rely on their most easily accessible information resources when they are considering some behavioural innovation, in particular their personal mental map as well as advices from friends, colleagues and family; in addition, they often content themselves with satisfying solutions, partly by building new habits on basis of former travel mode use experience. In consequence, people hardly think of relying on institutional information and counselling services, especially if those services are not free of charge and if they are readily available only during limited opening hours. Given this difficult situation, we recommend that: 1. Travel blending offers, individualised marketing and mobility counselling services should be tailored to the typical needs linked to different kinds of life cycle events. People must be able to understand right away (i.e. without significant cognitive effort) that they can take advantage of these services. 2. Information and counselling services must be able to meet the (very) high expectations of users: low charge (if any), unrestricted availability in time (24 hour service for at least a part of the services), high reliability of delivered information, high competence of service personnel in order to promptly dispense individually relevant advices, etc. 3. Transport service providers and associated mobility management institutions should propose 'coached experiments' with new travel modes. In our sense, such experiments are most prone to success with regard to changing individual behaviour, because they include a comprehensive scheme of participant motivation and of personal experience development. 4. Mobility management efforts in companies should be further promoted. Indeed, companies offer an interesting social context for overcoming the challenges outlined above and, in addition, they can address not only new employees ('change of workplace' event) but also older ones (no life cycle event). Generally speaking, our findings suggest that mobility management services can not be expected to successfully impact on individual travel behaviour if they are not consequently funded, because they face a situation where individuals still need to be convinced that information and counselling services can be of help for them when they are reshaping their travel habits. In addition, given that household motorization is partly culturally motivated, alternate schemes of car availability (car rental, car-sharing services at home and at the workplace, private car-sharing, etc.) should be further promoted, as they far less induce effective car use than ownership does.
Research fields (keywords):	Social and behavioral sciences, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), EU, Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

Artemis (plug-in hybrid electric and electric vehicles) , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Artemis (plug-in hybrid electric and electric vehicles)
Record ID:	29541
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

An investigation of strategies leading to a 2000W city using a bottom-up model of urban metabolism , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	An investigation of strategies leading to a 2000W city using a bottom-up model of urban metabolism
Record ID:	29540
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	SNF

An analysis of mode choice effects in different scenarios simulated with MATSim , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	An analysis of mode choice effects in different scenarios simulated with MATSim
Record ID:	29537
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Industry, Industrie

Agenten-basierte Simulation für location based services , Meister, Konrad, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Agenten-basierte Simulation für location based services
Record ID:	19246
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	Agenten-basierte Mikrosimulationsmodelle des Verkehrsverhaltens beruhen auf a) Beschreibung der Agenten, b) Beschreibung ihres Verkehrsnachfrage, c) Modellen der Entscheidungen, d) Modellen des Fahrverhaltens und e) Daten zur Überprüfung der Güte des Gesamtmodells. Die Softwareimplementierungen des Gesamtmodells zielen darauf ab, die Teilmodelle und die Datenflüsse zwischen ihnen effizient zu verwalten und eine in sich selbst konsistente Lösung so schnell wie möglich zu finden. Bei Modellen des Verkehrsverhaltens besteht diese Konsistenz dann, wenn die generalisierten Kosten, auf denen die Entscheidungen der Agenten beruhen, mit denen identisch sind, die sie auf Grund der Entscheidungen dann später erfahren. (Die generalisierten Kosten sind die gewichteten Summe aus den monetären Kosten des Verhaltens, den Opportunitätskosten der Reisezeit/Aktivität und dem Komfort der Fahrt/Weges). Das am IVT in Zusammenarbeit mit Prof. Nagel, TU Berlin entwickelte System agenten-basierte System MATSim-T implementiert diesen Ansatz. Für einen Population von 10^7 Agenten wird die Rechenzeit bis zur Lösung auf 103 Stunden für eine CPU geschätzt. Bei weniger umfassenden Lösungen, z.B. wenn nur Routen zu und Dauern der Aktivitäten zu bestimmen sind, liegen die Rechenzeit bis zur Lösung bei 20h für eine CPU und 10^7 Agenten. Die Zusammenarbeit zwischen Datapuls und IVT erlaubt es nun, die Grundstruktur eine Grössenordnung besser anzuwenden, da die Daten der Datapuls es erlauben a) die Beschreibung der Agenten räumlich und inhaltlich drastisch zu verbessern und b) zwei zentrale Entscheidungsmodelle, das der Routenwahl und der Zeitplanung inhaltlich wesentlich zu verbessern. Bevor diese Verbesserungen der Ausgangsdaten aber kommerziell nutzbar werden können, muss die Softwareimplementierung des Systems deutlich beschleunigt werden ('overnight run' als verständlicher Anspruch der Praxis). Die Datenbanken der Datapuls stellen detailliert beschriebene Agenten zur Verfügung, deren Wohnorte räumlich bekannt sind (Blockrandseite). Wie bisher müssen aber die Daten zum Verkehrshalten den Agenten zugespielt werden. Die bisherigen MATSim-T Verfahren müssen entsprechend angepasst werden. Die beiden zentralen Entscheidungsmodelle betreffen die Zeitplanung (was, wann, wie lange, wo und mit welchem Verkehrsmittel) und die Routenplanung. Datapuls verfügt aus einer vorherigen GPS - basierten Studie Informationen über 3600 Personenwochen. Die mit dem GPS beobachteten Routen und die ÖV-Routen, die im Mikrozensus Verkehr 2005 berichtet wurden, erlauben uns erstmals für die Schweiz repräsentative Routenwahlmodelle zu schätzen. Die notwendige 100-fache Beschleunigung der Berechnung der konsistenten Lösung ist nur durch eine Vielzahl von Massnahmen im Dateneinsatz, Detailverbesserungen in bestehenden Algorithmen und der Neuimplementierung einzelner Modelle zu erreichen.
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	KTI

Agenten-basierte Mikrosimulation zur dynamischen Wirkungsanalyse , Meister, Konrad, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Agenten-basierte Mikrosimulation zur dynamischen Wirkungsanalyse
Record ID:	19248
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	AUSGANGSLAGE Die Westumfahrung Zürich wird im Frühling/Sommer 2008 dem Verkehr übergeben. Dieser grosse Netzausbau wird die Verkehrsströme im Kanton stark verändern. In Ergänzung zu den laufenden Begleituntersuchungen auf der Grundlage makroskopischer Kennzahlen, insbesondere umfassender Querschnitts- und Kordonzählungen, möchte der Kanton vertieften Einblick in die erwarteten Wirkungen auf der Grundlage eines disaggregierten Modellansatzes. Folgende Fragen stehen im Vordergrund: - Welche Personen, aus welchem Gebiet, nutzen die Westumfahrung und haben welchen Gewinn davon in Form von Zeit und Zuverlässigkeit? - Gibt es auch indirekte Gewinner oder Verlierer? - Wie verändern sich die Ganglinien des Verkehrs im Raum Brunau - Sihlhölzli, insbesondere während der Morgenspitze Dabei gilt es drei Fälle zu unterscheiden: Ist-Zustand; Ausbauzustand mit und ohne flankierende Massnahmen. Zusätzlich sind eine beschränkte Anzahl zusätzlicher Läufe mit unterschiedlichen Parametrisierungen des Verkehrsmanagementplans "Stau Brunau" für den Ausbauzustand mit flankierenden Massnahmen notwendig. BEARBEITUNGSANSATZ Das IVT hat zusammen mit der TU Berlin in den letzten Jahren das agenten-basierte mikroskopische Simulationssystem MATSIM-T entwickelt und es für den Kanton Zürich implementiert. In diesem System wird die Ziel-, Verkehrsmittel- und Routenwahl künstlich erzeugter Zürcher (Agenten) simuliert, so dass in der letzten Iteration das System seinen Ruhepunkt gefunden hat. Die Reisezeiten werden durch eine ereignis-orientierte Simulation des Verkehrsablaufs berechnet. Die Agenten jedes bewohnten Hektar werden so erzeugt, dass ihre mittleren Eigenschaften den bekannten mittleren Eigenschaften dieses Hektars des Kantons entsprechen (Hektardatenbank der Volkszählung). Die Zuordnung der Arbeitsplätze und Schulen erfolgt mit Hilfe der Pendlerstatistik. Die Verkehrserzeugung erfolgt über die Zuordnung geeigneter Aktivitätenketten aus dem Mikrozensus Verkehr. Dieses Detail erlaubt uns, die Agenten, ihre Wege und ihre Reisezeiten sekundenfein zu verfolgen, respektive die Belastungen aller Strecken und Knoten sekundenfein zu analysieren und zwischen Netzzuständen zu vergleichen. Im Laufe einer anderen Studie wird dieser Ansatz in der ersten Hälfte 2007 für die ganze Schweiz auf Grundlage eines Navigationnetzes implementiert. ARBEITSSCHRITTE Die folgenden Arbeitsschritte sind vorgesehen: - Implementierung eins Moduls für die Quell,-, Ziel- und Durchgangsverkehre: Diese Verkehre werden vereinfacht modelliert werden und ein entsprechendes Modul wird entwickelt, implementiert und getestet werden. Die entsprechenden Daten werden den dynamisierten Matrizen des nationalen Verkehrsmodells entnommen. Falls bis dahin entsprechende Daten für den Güterverkehr vorhanden sind, werden diese analog behandelt. - Zuspielen der Validierungsdaten: Die vom Kanton enthaltenen Daten werden zugespielt, geprüft und wo notwendig ergänzt. - Kalibrierung des Modells: Die Implentierung wird auf ihre Konsistenz mit den vorhandenen Daten hin überprüft (Zählungen, aber auch den Verhaltensdaten des MZ 2005) und, falls notwendig, entsprechend korrigiert und kalibriert. - Modellläufe der drei Hauptalternativen: Zur Abbildung der Verlässlichkeit werden die Läufe ausreichend oft mit zufällig variierten Kapazitäten wiederholt, um die Mittelwerte und Streueungen verlässlich abbilden zu können. - Implementierung der Verkehrsmanagementpläne: Es wird im Rahmen dieser Arbeiten nur möglich sein, die durchschnittlichen Kapazitätswirkungen der verschiedenen Verkehrssteuerungen abzubilden. Es ist nicht vorgesehen, die kurzfristigen dynamischen Wirkungen des Verkehrsmanagements und -steuerung, z.B. durch adaptive Lichtsignalsteuerung abzubilden. Die dafür notwendigen neuen Verfahren werden entwickelt, implementiert und getestet. Modellläufe für das Verkehrsmanagement 'Stau Brunau': Nach Rücksprache mit dem Auftraggeber werden zwei bis drei alternative Ansätze untersucht und analysiert. Schlussbericht: Nebem dem Schlussbericht werden hier auch die beiden vorgesehen Aufsätze erstellt.
Research fields (keywords):	Transport Technology, Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

Agent-based modelling of retailers and their reactions to road pricing , Löchl, Michael, Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Agent-based modelling of retailers and their reactions to road pricing
Record ID:	19042
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Axhausen, Kay W. ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	None
Research fields (keywords):	Computer Science, Economics, Urban Economics, Spatial Economics, Geography, Simulation and modelling
Funding sources:	TH-Gesuch, ETH internal grant

Activity-oriented analysis of induced travel demand (SVI 2004/012) , Scherer, Patrick >>

Project title:	Activity-oriented analysis of induced travel demand (SVI 2004/012)
Record ID:	29498
Project status:	Published
Project Leader(s):	Weis, Claude ()
Organizational unit:	Chair: Axhausen, Kay W. <)> (03521)
Project description:	Induced travel demand, a phenomenon that is here defined as additional demand for transport services caused by improving travel conditions, has been a topic of research for many years. In contrast to previous studies on the topic that focused on specific and localised changes such as the construction of new roads or rail lines in given corridors and the assessment of their side effects, the research described in this thesis chooses a different approach. Aggregate effects on traffic generation produced by changing the generalised costs of travel were assessed in this project. The dimensions of demand that were of interest were the generation of travel on both the individual and the cohort levels, including: the propensity for participating in out-of-home activities, or being mobile, on a given day; the number of trips and journeys conducted; the resulting total times spent outside the home location; and distances travelled. It was shown that decreasing generalised costs induced a higher mobility of travellers in general. This was demonstrated by the model results and especially by the significant effects of increased accessibility levels that were used as a proxy for generalised costs. The substantially induced demand effect on these upper levels of demand generation is certainly an interesting finding which, to the authors' best knowledge, has not been shown before in this form. The increases of general accessibility levels that can be expected from local projects are quite small. Thus, although a significant induced demand effect was shown in the model's results, it was found that the measures that would be necessary to bring about changes to the transport system substantial enough to trigger the aforementioned effects in a broad spatial extent would be onerous. The effects might very well be visible in a local context, however.
Research fields (keywords):	Engineering Sciences
Funding sources:	Öffentliche Institutionen (z. B. Bundesämter), Public institutions (e. g. federal offices)

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